What Is The Best Single Strategy For Investing?

There are many investment strategies.  A stream of income from ones investments  is always nice but it comes at the risk of having your net worth drop considerably in bear markets.  “Buy and Hold” is really difficult for most people because they don’t want 50% drawdowns. When they fear that level of loss they “Buy and Fold.”

So is there an alternative? I believe that large trends like big bull and bear markets can be predicted. Being an atmospheric scientist and forecaster I think I was pretty good at forecasting big events. The stock market has repeatable patterns just like weather. So if one could catch say 80% of large multi year trends in either direction, one could increase their risk adjusted returns buy being in a market index ETF during big bull markets and being in cash during the big and even more violent big bear. That is my main strategy and it works!

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